Texas Pre-Foreclosure Trends: The Slow Burn of Housing Hardship

A Statewide Crisis in Numbers and Names

At first glance, the September 2024 housing data in Texas paints a picture of modest monthly fluctuation. The number of pre-foreclosure filings, the formal notice that a mortgage is in default and a property may soon go to auction, ticked up just under five percent from the previous month, rising from 1,366 in August to 1,434 in September. But below that nearly static surface ripples a deeper story, one of fragile economic recovery, vanished pandemic safeguards, and everyday Texans on the brink of losing not just a piece of property, but their home.

Compared to this same time last year, the difference is striking: September 2023 saw a towering 3,144 pre-foreclosure filings, more than double the current total. That represents a 54.38% year-over-year drop. On the surface, the trend looks encouraging. But a wider lens and a closer ear to individual stories tell something more complicated and more human.

Behind the Numbers: The Lives Caught in Between

On a dusky, wind-worn block in the outskirts of Fort Worth, Linda Salazar, a 56-year-old home health aide, is now three months behind on her mortgage. “The bills just kept stacking up,” she said, thumbing through a manila folder bursting with pink slips and overdue notices. Her husband’s hours were cut last year when the construction company he worked for trimmed staff. Her own wages, nominally increased by inflation-fretting agencies, have failed to keep up with the rising costs of groceries, utilities, and, most of all, housing.

Salazar is one of many low- and middle-income homeowners across Texas for whom homeownership, a cornerstone of American stability, is beginning to feel more like a liability than a legacy. A pay cut, a temporary illness, or a car repair can push a household from on-track to overdue, from homeowner to house-in-limbo.

Pandemic Relief Fades, and the Bills Return

Two years ago, Salazar and hundreds of thousands of other Texans had a reprieve. The federal government’s pandemic-era foreclosure moratoriums had all but frozen home losses in the wake of an unprecedented global crisis. In 2021, only 607 properties across Texas were in pre-foreclosure. The number inched even lower in 2022 to just 226.

But 2023 snapped back with startling intensity. As protections expired and the cost of living soared, the state recorded 41,338 pre-foreclosure cases that year, an astonishing increase that reflects both the backlog of missed payments and new pressures from inflation, rising interest rates, and unaffordable housing markets.

Now, in 2024, the pendulum is swinging again. The year-to-date total from January through September stands at 18,620, a figure that, while lower than 2023’s trajectory, is still nearly 3,000% higher than the pandemic lows.

Economic Pressures Testing the Middle and Working Class

The moderation in 2024’s numbers may offer temporary relief, but the underlying economic conditions remain deeply uncertain. Inflation, though cooled from its pandemic-era peak, continues to gnaw away at budgets. Texas, once widely seen as a haven for affordable housing, has seen median home prices and rent spike more than 40% in some cities since 2019. And with interest rates still hovering above 7% for a typical 30-year mortgage, refinancing is no longer an escape hatch.

“Home affordability in Texas has fundamentally changed,” says Dr. Rafael Benitez, a housing economist at the University of Texas at Austin. “What we’re seeing is the long-term consequence of wages not keeping up with housing costs, something that began even before the pandemic and has only gotten worse since.”

The spike in 2023 pre-foreclosure, followed by the ongoing albeit softer pressure in 2024, is hitting hardest in communities that benefited the least from the broader economic recovery, Black, Latino, and working-class households in particular.

Conclusion: What the Numbers Don’t Show

The September 2024 pre-foreclosure data tells a story of contrast, it is both a reprieve from last year’s surge and a warning shot of potential hardship ahead. Texas may be through the worst of its pandemic housing whiplash, but too many families remain one crisis, from their child getting sick, or their car breaking down, away from losing the foundation they built over decades.

And while 1,434 pre-foreclosure may seem like a statistical fit for graphs, each is a plea for help not yet heard.