Oregon’s Pre-Foreclosure Rates in September: A Decline in Numbers, But Not in Struggles

A Return to Normal—Or a Quiet Before the Storm?

In September 2024, Oregon recorded 117 pre-foreclosure filings, a figure that, on its face, might seem encouraging in a state still grappling with housing affordability and economic uncertainty. That number represents an 8.6% decline from August’s 128 filings, and an even more striking 59.2% drop compared to the 287 pre-foreclosures recorded one year ago in September 2023.

But if history has taught us anything about housing data, it’s that behind the charts and percentages lie stories of people, often families living paycheck to paycheck, facing the terrifying threat of losing the roof over their heads.

And while the raw numbers suggest stabilization, they do little to capture the quiet desperation of homeowners walking along the precarious edge of housing security.

A Long Road from the Great Recession

Understanding Oregon’s current pre-foreclosure trend helps to step back and look at the long arc of the last two decades.

At the height of the foreclosure crisis from 2009 to 2011, Oregon saw a monthly average of more than 2,500 pre-foreclosure filings, peaking at nearly 3,500 in 2010. Foreclosure notices flooded mailboxes like junk mail, and neighborhoods threw up shutters faster than homeowners could take down “for sale” signs.

But those dark days began to ease by 2012, and from 2016 to 2019, Oregon enjoyed what seemed like a new period of equilibrium. Monthly pre-foreclosures dipped below 300. Then the pandemic arrived.

While COVID-19 caused an unprecedented job market shock, the federal and state moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures kept thousands of homeowners in their properties, at least temporarily. In fact, in 2021, the state saw just 21 pre-foreclosure filings per month on average.

Since then, the numbers have gradually risen as forbearance protections expired. However, 2024 is so far trending lower compared to the past two years. Through the first nine months of the year, there have been about 148 filings per month, totaling 1,324 to date, nearly half of what Oregon recorded in 2023.

So why the apparent progress?

The Data Suggests Recovery, But Reality Tells Another Story

What’s unfolding isn’t necessarily a picture of economic recovery. It may be more about timing, tightening regulations, and policy interventions doing exactly what they were designed to do: slow down the pace.

Yet, for many families across the state, the respite may be short-lived.

A mother of three in Medford shared the mounting pressure she feels to keep up with her mortgage after her husband lost his warehouse job earlier this year.

“We used savings for a few months, but then the rate on our loan adjusted and our payment jumped by $300,” she said. “We applied for assistance, but now I’m just waiting for the next letter. Every knock at the door makes my heart stop.”

Her story is not unique. Rising interest rates over the past two years have significantly driven up mortgage payments for homeowners on variable-rate loans. And although the Federal Reserve has recently hinted at a pause in rate increases, inflation continues to squeeze household budgets, especially for low- and middle-income families.

Oregon has also seen a surge in housing costs over the past decade; in cities like Bend and Portland, the median home price has doubled or tripled compared to 2010. Add to that soaring property taxes in some counties and the return of student loan repayments, and what you get is a financial environment where even gainfully employed homeowners are teetering on the edge.

The Pitfalls of Limited Data: Who Is Suffering—and Where?

One troubling reality is how little we truly know about where the burden is falling. The data available are aggregated at the state level, without breaking down which counties or cities are experiencing higher concentrations of pre-foreclosure.

That missing granularity makes it harder to anticipate where interventions are most needed or how local housing markets are absorbing financial stress. Are renters turning to homeownership only to find themselves overwhelmed by adjustable-rate mortgages? Are rural homeowners keeping up better than those in urban areas? These are questions we can’t answer, at least not yet.