Georgia’s Pre-Foreclosure Landscape: Quiet Numbers, Loud Warnings

A Slow Climb or a Brewing Storm?

In the waning days of summer 2024, the state of Georgia recorded 778 pre-foreclosure filings. A quiet number that barely flickers on the radar compared to the catastrophic fallout of the 2008 housing crash. But numbers don’t always tell the whole story. Behind that figure is a slow-moving current of instability that reflects something much more personal, and more painful. It’s the story of working families who stretched thin to buy homes during a pandemic-fueled market, only to find themselves undone by inflation, job displacement, and the persistent gap between rising costs and stagnant wages.

For context, 778 pre-foreclosure properties were reported in September 2024, a slight increase of 3.18% from the 754 recorded in August. At face value, that month-over-month increase seems modest. But look back just one year earlier, and the shift is more dramatic: down 45.27% from September 2023, when 1,422 homes in Georgia had already entered the early stages of foreclosure. That year-over-year drop may suggest improvement, but the reality is far more nuanced, shaped by shifting policies, stretched consumers, and widening inequalities.

What the Numbers Can’t Explain — Without the People

“I just want to keep the house my daughter was born in.” That’s what 38-year-old Nicole Harris from East Point whispered through tears earlier this month. A nursing assistant for over a decade, Nicole bought a modest two-bedroom bungalow in 2020 with the help of stimulus programs and historically low mortgage rates. But rising costs for groceries, electricity, and child care steadily eroded the buffer she once had.

When her overtime hours were cut earlier this year, she fell behind on her mortgage. By July, she was already receiving notices. “It isn’t that I didn’t budget, everything just changed so fast,” she said.

While Georgia’s pre-foreclosure filings today pale in comparison to the over 189,000 recorded during the peak of the foreclosure crisis in 2010, history has shown that housing contractions often start slowly, with families like Nicole’s, before larger cracks begin to form.

A Post-COVID Resurgence — Or a Rebalancing?

During the pandemic, federal and state foreclosure moratoria kept many families in their homes while unemployment soared and economic uncertainty reigned. As a result, Georgia’s pre-foreclosure cases had plummeted. Just 459 in 2022, and 470 in 2021, compared to nearly 16,000 in 2023.

Now in 2024, that temporary lifeline appears to be fading. Year-to-date, Georgia has seen 8,894 pre-foreclosure filings through September. At its current pace, the state is likely to see significantly fewer cases than in 2023. Perhaps as few as 12,000. That suggests the feared post-pandemic foreclosure wave hasn’t fully materialized. Yet that doesn’t mean Georgians are financially okay.

Instead, industry experts suggest the numbers reveal a different pattern. “We’re seeing smaller cracks in the foundation,” said Jamal Bryant, a foreclosure prevention counselor in Atlanta. “People aren’t defaulting en masse like in 2008. But for low-to-moderate income households, especially communities of color, the squeeze is real and some are just weeks or months away from slipping under.”

Bryant explained that homeowners today tend to be more heavily leveraged, with higher monthly payments due to inflated pandemic-era home prices and escalating property taxes. The issue is less about mass defaults and more about attritional losses. A few dozen homes here, a few dozen there.

Affordability, Inflation, and the Cost of Staying Put

At the heart of Georgia’s housing vulnerability is a broader affordability crisis. Median home prices in metropolitan areas like Atlanta have ballooned since 2020, even as wage growth for lower-income earners has slowed or flatlined. Add in an inflationary environment. With food prices up nearly 20% since 2021 and utility bills climbing more than 15% in some counties, the math to stay afloat simply doesn’t add up.

For homeowners without significant savings, even minor setbacks, a medical bill, a temporary job loss, can begin a dangerous slide toward missed mortgage payments. And help isn’t always easy to access. “The paperwork is complex, and you’ve got to wait on hold for hours,” said 62-year-old Walter Daniels, a retired Army veteran living in Macon who narrowly avoided foreclosure this summer. “By the time someone picks up your call, your house might already be on a list.”